Neath could, mathematically, still make the Pool 1 shakedown - if defending champions Leicester Tigers lose both their remaining games, away to Amatori & Calvisano and then home to the Welsh All Blacks.
But the reality is that Llanelli are now the sole Welsh standard bearers in European club rugby's premier tournament, with three of the six Welsh wins in 20 fixtures.
"Your three home games in the Heineken Cup are massive occasions - you must win those to have any real chance of making the knock-out stages," said Wales centre Davies.
"We have beaten Glasgow Rugby and Sale Sharks at Stradey and now we must aim for the treble against Bourgoin.
"And although we end the group matches against Glasgow away, if we can beat Bourgoin we will give ourselves a great chance of qualifying for the quarter-finals.
"However, Bourgoin are a quality team - as we found out last October when they beat us 54-38 out in France. That match showed we cannot afford to give them any free possession with loose kicking as they are a great counter-attacking side.
"They have got an excellent back three, Benjamin Boyet, Eremodo Tuni and Jean-Francois Coux played that night, and right wing Tuni in particular was a real danger. This time we must not give them the opportunities to get their running game going.
"But at Llanelli we always seem to be able to raise ourselves for Heineken Cup matches and let's hope we are no different on Friday night. Our fans love the tournament and give us a huge lift with their passionate support.
"The competition means we are challenging ourselves against the best teams around, which is just what we want. And, while we are level with Bourgoin on six points, they are on top of Pool 3 and we want that spot going into the final round.
"We started off the season a bit slowly but now we are playing a complete 15-man game, our phase play is vastly improved on what we were achieving last season and that has given us added confidence."
While Bourgoin finish the group stages at home to Sale Sharks on 18 January, team manager Philippe Saint-Andre accepts that this Friday is crunch time.
"We started back training last Friday after a 10 day break for Christmas and New Year," said the former French wing.
"It's not great compared to the Anglo-Saxon countries who have not stopped playing over the festive period and who will be much more match-fit when it comes to Rounds 5 and 6 of the Heineken Cup.
"But that's the way it is - the French players' Union have negotiated 10 days' holiday at this time of year and we have to stick to it and we will do all we can to be ready for Llanelli on Friday night.
"After losing in Glasgow, we have no option other than to win all our remaining matches. We had a great chance to qualify for the quarter-finals in that game but we let that chance go. Now we have to try and produce two good matches to qualify.
"It's always very difficult in Llanelli and they really are the favourites for the Pool but if we get a chance to get a result, we will grab it."