Worcester Warriors and Perpignan will go into the final two rounds of Pool 2 matches in the New Year with the calculators at the ready - but the Warriors accepting that the sole quarter-final qualification place is Perpignan's to lose.
The Warriors left Stade Aime Giral after their Round 4 contest with a losing bonus point that leaves the clubs on 15 points apiece but with Perpignan marginally in the driving seat.
If two teams in the same Pool finish on the same number of match points then group honours will initially be decided by who has earned the most number of match points from the head-to-head matches.
Worcester and Perpignan have earned five points each from those contests and if they still cannot be separated then the club who has scored the most tries in the two matches go top - and Perpignan are ahead 3-1 on that score.
"We are going to have to hope that Bizkaia Gernika or Rovigo play well enough against Perpignan to deny them a try bonus point," said Warriors' head coach Richard Hill.
"It's not in our hands now. If Perpignan beat the other teams with a try bonus point then they will go through.
"However, strange things can happen and maybe Rovigo or Gernika will do enough against Perpignan.
"We have just got to look after ourselves in our two remaining games, make sure we get the bonus point and do all we can do to get the maximum 10 points and see where we end up.
"To go to Perpignan and play like we did, it's a huge confidence boost and we played a lot of rugby and kept the ball in hand.
"I'm disappointed we lost but to get a bonus point in the manner we did, we have taken a step forward and the group is growing in confidence."
