have never been one for the law of averages but the Heineken Cup quarter-final weekend suggested otherwise.
First the objective fact; in the previous 44 quarter-finals there have been 11 away wins - last weekend Munster secured the one in four away victory with a minimum of fuss against a disappointingly callow Gloucester team.
Now for the subjective stuff; there always seems to be one shock and again we were provided with one as Saracens turned a 30-3 pasting in the EDF semi-final into a 19-10 home victory.
Had they played with such spirit in the last few months they would be very much part of the Premiership hunt.
As it is, revitalised and rejuvenated by the one-legged Richard Hill, the Saracens stunned tournament second favourites, the Ospreys, and have injected some real excitement into their late season.
It is a coincidence that our cameras are back at Kingsholm for Gloucester and Saracens this Saturday. That match has an added frisson after the weekend.
Gloucester are teetering and need to show the power and organisation, defensively and at the breakdown, that Saracens achieved.
An away win would turn 2008 into a crisis team for a side that has a real look of mortality to it.
Job well done
London Irish will reflect on another European job well done against Perpignan. Peter Hewat was a deserving man of the match, but the reputation of Nick Kennedy must have grown a few more inches.
A big semi-final performance against Toulouse could see him bound for New Zealand under the guidance of God knows who.
He will need the game of his life because if London Irish cannot subdue the Toulouse set-piece it will take an incredible effort to hold their back-line in check.
Toulouse are the most talented team in the tournament but the beauty of rugby is that one major tactical triumph can render all else irrelevant.
London Irish's line out gives them a chance although the smart money has to be on a Munster versus Toulouse final.
Then again, who predicted Richard Hill would eclipse Marty Holah and Saracens beat the core of a Grand Slam team? It is both a funny and wonderful game. Now to this week's post.
