The middle rounds of the Heineken Cup Pool matches won't win you the title, but they can certainly knock you out of contention.
The middle rounds of the Heineken Cup Pool matches won't win you the title, but they can certainly knock you out of contention.
That's why the next two weeks are vital for any teams that want to reach the knock-out phase - and particularly the Welsh Regions as they battle to get a team through to the knock-out phase for only the second time in five seasons.
There are some huge challenges ahead as teams play back-to-back matches and none more so than in Pool 5 with my old club the Scarlets.
They face the 2006 champions Munster in two games that will decide if they have any chance of hitting back from their poor start. Seven straight wins took them through to the semi-finals last season, but they haven't been able to pick up a point yet in the 'Pool of Death'.
So it is win or bust at Stradey on Saturday in a repeat of last season's epic quarter-final. No team has qualified from their Pool before having suffered three defeats, so Simon Easterby's men must come up trumps after losing in France to ASM Clermont-Auvergne and then at home to London Wasps.
You've got to feel sorry a little bit for the Scarlets because had they been in any other Pool they might have escaped the clutches of three of the top teams in Europe. But cometh the hour, cometh the Scarlets - and I'm banking on a big backlash this weekend.
Not that Munster are going to roll over. They could, and probably should, have beaten Wasps in Coventry on the opening weekend and will fancy their chances when they get the champions back at Thomond Park in Round 6. They did the business on Clermont and will arrive at Stradey hell bent on avenging last season's defeat.
Everyone is waiting for them to tip over the hill because they allegedly have an ageing side, but they are the masters at maintaining standards. The introduction of Rua Tipoki this season has given them a sharper edge behind the scrum and the battle of the half-backs - Peel and Jones against Stringer and O'Gara - is going to be critical.
No doubt the coaches will have half an eye on what happens in France when Wasps travel to Clermont earlier in the day. For my money, Wasps are good enough to win over there.
The way Danny Cipriani, Riki Flutey, Fraser Waters and Tom Voyce carved holes in the Scarlets' defence in Round 2 means they have a cutting edge behind the scrum to go with their experienced campaigners up front. If they can frustrate Clermont, and stay in touch to the final quarter, I think they will come out on top.
The Blues need a big performance in Paris against Stade Francais because their Pool is wide open. The good old fashioned win by Bristol over the French champions made it all to play for.
Only one team, Munster by two points in a quarter-final, have beaten Stade on their own ground. Other than that they have won 28 of 29 matches there.
But the Blues are better on the road these days than they have been and if they can hold onto them up front then a bonus point is a possibility. All they have to do then is blow them away at the Arms Park a week later.
The Dragons may have only picked up a point from their two games to date, but they are capable of picking up a full-house of 10 against Italian champions Benetton Treviso over the next fortnight. That would put them back in the mix and make up for their unexpected drubbing by London Irish in Round 2.
As for the Ospreys, they have got to become more consistent. They have the talent and the strength in depth to go all the way, but they cannot afford to slip up as they did in the second half at Gloucester in Round 2.
An out of sorts Ulster at the Liberty is the perfect way to force their way back into contention in Pool 2, especially if Bourgoin can upset Gloucester on Friday night. Few teams find it easy to win at Stade Pierre Rajon and that game will be a thorough examination of Gloucester's title chances.
In my mind, nothing less than nine points from their two battles with Ulster will be good enough to get the Ospreys back on track. That would then give them hope for the trip to Bourgoin and the return leg with Gloucester in the new year.
Nobody said the Road to Cardiff for the 2008 Heineken Cup final was going to be easy. In two weeks time we'll know who is still on course.
