MILES HARRISON'S ROUND 4 PREVIEW

Leinster's record in France is not good. They have only won once from eight attempts. This is a negative for them going into this match but they should also feel enormously positive having put 90 plus points on Bourgoin last week! Bourgoin were shockingly under-strength and it was a poor performance from the French. It seems that they feel qualification is beyond them and they are concentrating on the French championship, which is something that will annoy the likes of Bath and Treviso. From Leinster's point of view, they just needed to play what was in front of them and they rolled in the tries that will stand them in good stead ahead of this match. I thought David Holwell at fly half was outstanding last week. He is one of the unsung heroes of the backline and played really well, running the backs superbly.
PREDICTION:
Leinster have gone for the same men this week and I'm going to tip them for a rare win in France but I expect Bourgoin to show more fight on home soil. Their fans will demand it.

Pool 6
SATURDAY, DECEMBER 11
Ulster (Ire) v Stade Francais (Fra)(KO 1pm)
LIVE on Sky Sports 2, 12.30pm

Stade find themselves going into the fourth round with fourteen points from a possible fifteen. They didn't get the bonus point last weekend and were probably just denied that by a blow of the whistle.
But despite the fact that they are running away with the Pool, Stade have never won at Ravenhill and the two teams will have played each other in this competition three years in-a-row come this weekend. However, as I said last week there is a gap in quality between these two sides this season and Stade are the better team.
Yet Ulster are always a force at home and they will have taken heart from the surge they put on at the end of the match last week.
PREDICTION:
I think it will be a closer match than in Paris but I will predict a first win for Stade at Ravenhill (just).

Pool 2
SATURDAY, DECEMBER 11
Bath (Eng) v Treviso (Fra)(KO 2.15pm)
I said it was possible that Treviso could pull off the win last weekend but I didn't quite go as far as to back them! It was the blemish on the card! For Treviso to beat former Heineken Cup champions is tremendous, especially on the back of a 34-0 win over Bourgoin. Treviso have officially arrived and are now a good side; if they hadn't been taken seriously before they certainly should be now. The Italians have admitted this week that they are expecting a Bath backlash at The Rec. But Bath have been badly hit by injury and are really short of people to backlash with, although they should be the superior side at home.
PREDICTION:
Bath should win, if not Leinster could be home and hosed in this group. I would certainly love to see Treviso become the first Italian side to make it through to the quarterfinals but we can't get carried away with that idea yet because they have tough matches at Bath and Leinster to come. So I'm going to go for Bath but tentatively again!

Pool 6
SATURDAY, DECEMBER 11
Cardiff Blues (Wal) v Gloucester (Eng)(KO 2.30pm)
Last week Gloucester couldn't get away and as in the past the Cardiff Blues had the chance to close out the match but didn't. Sooner or later the Blues need to win one of these tight ones and I think despite their frustration they have a lot of spirit within the squad. Gloucester have all kinds of problems in the front row going into this match. They also lost Simpson-Daniel last weekend and Garvey and Goodridge were hobbling. They are running out of men to see them through in this competition.
PREDICTION:
This will be very close and Gloucester have to win. Having said that it would be typical of the Blues to win when the group is almost over for them - it would be just their luck. Mind you, you make your own luck and ultimately they haven't been good enough. But I'm going for the Blues to turn things around at home this time and I think the boot of Lee Thomas will be crucial.

Pool 4
SATURDAY, DECEMBER 11
Quins (Eng) v Ospreys (Wal)(KO 3pm)
I thought this one would be closer last week. The Ospreys are not out of it yet and need to believe in their own ability and keep winning. Munster and Castres could well knock each other on the head and let them in. For me Gavin Henson is one of the best talents in this competition and has a great boot as well. He got eight penalty goals last week and he can lead them to a win this weekend.
Quins of course are a different proposition at home, which makes this match a hard one to fathom. Quins are the kind of team who can do it in one off games even though they are probably now out in terms of qualification.
PREDICTION:
I wouldn't be all that surprised if we heard a result coming through from the Stoop in favour of Quins but I think the Ospreys will win and keep themselves in with a chance in this Pool.

Pool 1
SATURDAY, DECEMBER 11
Calvisano (Ita) v Biarritz (Fra)(KO 3pm)
Biarritz haven't travelled well this season but going into this match they know they have to get a result with big ties against Leicester and Wasps looming.
They had a decent win last week but they didn't get as much out of it as they should have done. They need to notch up a big total this weekend because this group is going to come down to points and totals. Calvisano really have a thankless task in this Pool but will be keen to take something from this group, even if it is just a bonus point.
PREDICTION:
I think Biarritz will rattle up a decent win and need to return to the away form that saw them beat Sale and the Llanelli Scarlets last year.

Pool 3
SATURDAY, DECEMBER 11
Toulouse (Fra) v Northampton (Eng)(KO 3pm)
LIVE on Sky Sports 2, 2.30pm
This is where I'm heading on Saturday. Toulouse met a Northampton side full of passion last weekend and Budge Pountney's men managed to drag out a fantastic performance from somewhere despite their woes at home. I said last week that I thought it was going to be one of those days and that we would know after the opening twenty minutes what sort of mood Northampton were in and so it proved. Considering their Zurich Premiership form it was all the more impressive. Saints captain Steve Thompson has said that they may have stirred a wasps nest with their win over the French and I think the atmosphere at the Stade Ernst Wallon could prove too much for Northampton -coupled with the experience Toulouse have in Europe.
PREDICTION:
This could be a repeat of the 2003 quarter final between these two sides with Toulouse coming out on top. Northampton have given themselves a fantastic chance to progress to the quarters with last week's win and so long as they don't go into this match with the mind set that they are going for second place in the Pool, then they have a chance to test themselves in one of the most enthralling atmospheres in European rugby. I am sure Budge Pountney will have them fired up. Going for Northampton was a risk last week but I won't take the same gamble this time and say Toulouse to win.

Pool 4
SATURDAY, DECEMBER 11
Munster (Ire) v Castres (Eng) (KO 5.15pm)
LIVE on Sky Sports 2, 4.30pm
There is not much between these two sides. Munster build their whole season around Europe and the Heineken Cup and if they lose this match they will be in big trouble.
The tension in and around Limerick will be unbearable in the build up to this game and will run up all the way to kick-off when the Munster fans will release a wall of sound which will hit the opposition with enormous force. Castres need to be tough and a key man for them is Paul Volley who was part of the Wasps team that left Dublin victorious last season in the semi-final. He will be running hot but so will the Munster crowd. Munster have squeezed through their matches so far this season and there is nothing to say that that they will close out the match with a lot to spare.
I think this will be a tense match and will come down to who makes the least mistakes.
PREDICTION:
Munster to edge it for me. It is not one that I can be certain about and it's not often you can say that when Munster are at home. Castres are a decent side and we should all watch out for David Bory on the wing - a strong talent.
Pool 5
SATURDAY, DECEMBER 11
Edinburgh (Sco) v Newcastle (Eng) (KO 5.30pm)
This will be a much closer contest than last week and then there was only ten points in it. The Falcons are silently picking off their prey in this competition and you have to be impressed with the way Rob Andrew is taking his side on in Europe. And then there's Jonny Wilkinson. He will be back! Edinburgh had the winning habit last season but not so in this campaign while Newcastle seem to have the muse. Nevertheless the Scottish capital is not an easy place to go to.
PREDICTION:
Newcastle to do the business in a tight struggle.
Pool 5
SATURDAY, DECEMBER 11
Perpignan (Fra) v Dragons (Wal) (KO 6pm)
Sky Sports 2, 5.50pm
Quite simply Perpignan have to win this match. The Dragons have been playing catch-up since the first weekend loss at home to Newcastle but they are a good side. Away from home my guess though is that the bookies would tend to go with Perpignan. Their ground is a bear pit and I don't know how the Dragons will react to that atmosphere.
PREDICTION:
I'm going to tip the Dragons. I think they are the better side and if the match was played on neutral ground then I would definitely say a Dragons win. This will be a top match and I'm annoyed that I'll be flying back from Toulouse when it's on the telly! Whatever time it is you normally go out for your curry on a Saturday night I suggest you delay it and make sure you catch this one!
Pool 3
SUNDAY, DECEMBER 12
Llanelli Scarlets (Wal) v Glasgow (Sco) (KO 1pm)
Sky Sports 2, 12.30pm
What an amazing tie this was last week. One minute you thought Glasgow were on top, then it swung back to the Scarlets, back to Glasgow before Llanelli eventually emerged victorious.
This is going to be a close contest but the Scarlets have more to fight for at Stradey Park in the context of the group.
They can haul themselves back into this competition and if they keep winning then they can watch the other results and see how far that takes them.
PREDICTION:
Scarlets to win with home advantage although these are not the two best teams in the group and you would expect Northampton and Toulouse to go through.

Pool 1
SUNDAY, DECEMBER 12
Leicester Tigers (Eng) v Wasps (Eng) (KO 3pm)
Sky Sports 2, 12.30pm
If there has been a better match in the group stages of the Heineken Cup in the last ten years than the game between Wasps and Leicester last week then I haven't seen it.
It was all but a Test match and was all we had expected and more.
The Tigers won the game up front. Stuart gave Julian White the Man of the Match award and that was the right choice for me. Leicester dominated the front row and I don't think there can be any complaints from either side about the result. I thought Nigel Williams was superb as referee. He kept control in a match that could easily have boiled out of control and I agree it would have been wrong to award a penalty try at the end. However, the sin-bin option was ignored and I thought a Leicester player (probably Neil Back) should have gone to the bin.
Wasps were also fantastic in defeat and not one of them complained about the late decisions and all acknowledged that the match was lost when they let Leicester run in three early tries.
For me this match demonstrated everything that is good about the game of rugby. Both teams were as hard as nails throughout but then hugged and shook hands after 80 minutes.
There was great rivalry in the stands too but also great harmony and no ill feeling between the supporters. It was a great advert for the sport.
PREDICTION:
I backed Leicester to squeak through last week and I'm going to go the same way for this Sunday's match.
It is one of those games to split opinions down the middle and will again this weekend. No one can really say with any conviction as to who will come out on top.
I'm going for Leicester by a whisker but I don't care if I'm wrong. That's the beauty of this kind of contest. You don't want to know the result, after all what's the point of going if you know who is about to win. If it is anywhere near the level of last week's game then we are all in for a treat! Just like last season, the Heineken Cup moved up to another level in round three. The fourth round of matches are set to be even more exciting as the realisation of success or failure starts to dawn on the participants.

It is great to watch and you can see no less than seven, yes seven, live matches on Sky Sports this weekend. Then there is the Sunday round-up show - European Rugby Special - with footage from all twelve matches. Can't wait!