Rocky's Rumble - the 2010 Heineken Cup Final

Rocky's Heineken Cup Final 2010 Big Match Verdict

The 2010 Heineken Cup Final is going to be a battle between two sides with very different stories. On the one hand Toulouse, the powerhouse of Europe looking like an unstoppable force, and on the other a Biarritz Olympique team that has looked like the fading star of French and European rugby for much of the season.

Through their own success in the Top 14 and Heineken Cup Toulouse hasn't had a week off since February, yet somehow they have managed to come into the final at full strength.

They are the overwhelming favourites with a rich history in the tournament, a style of game where weakness cannot be easily identified and a forward pack that looks to have an engine that's as reliable as any that can be constructed.

Their path to the final was impressive, not looking challenged until they met defending champions Leinster, who themselves were looking on a path to further glory. However the Toulousean juggernaut seemed only to be gaining momentum and Leinster couldn't halt their progress.

Guy Noves himself sounded the warning siren with his declaration of intent to regain the title of Europe's best, with little regard for any national pursuits.

Biarritz have been performing well below expectations in the Top 14. However, just like a supernova they're creating an enormous energy on which to go out on. It may possibly be enough energy to land talisman Imanol Harinordoquy with the Heineken Cup winners' medal that escaped him in 2006 and has eluded the Basque outfit altogether.

Breaking down the contest it's clear to see how big the challenge facing Biarritz. But Toulouse has stumbled at the big dance before and the pressure of being favourites has derailed many more fancied outfits.

THE SCRUM
Toulouse's demolition of the Leinster scrum was only upstaged by Biarritz's destruction of the Munster tight five a day later. Two French lessons in scrummaging handed out almost simultaneously have set the stage for one of the great scrum battles. Typically, two great packs will cancel each other out, but this scrum contest looks to have so much pressure surrounding it, and being created within it, that something will have to give. The winner of this contest will do well to find a bigger challenge anywhere in rugby.

THE LINE-OUT
Both teams have performed well enough in the tournament to date, but there's vulnerability there. The opportunity is there for one of the sides' to create and execute an effective strategy to attack the opponent's line-out and have great success. Neither line-out looks particularly strong and, just as Leinster stole three of Leicester's first five line-outs in the 2009 Heineken Cup final, either side can unsettle a source of ball crucial to both sides' plan. I would normally back Toulouse to be more likely to be the hunter in this scenario but, with Biarritz having had three weeks off and Toulouse slugging it out every weekend, Noves could find himself in a bit of a bind on Saturday.

THE BACK ROW
As inspirational as it was to see Imanol Harinordoquy take the field with what must have been an egg shell of a nose bone under that impeccably put together mask, I see the back row as a real strength for Toulouse. It is one of a couple of major areas Biarritz will need to address early on if they are to provide their higher numbers with the opportunities they need. On the most unusual mask in pro sport, I kept expecting to see blood trickling down from inside it. It didn't and somehow, with one strap around the head, it stayed perfectly in place through everything - truly amazing! However, I can see it attracting a little more attention this week should it reappear and if it didn't look pretty two weeks ago it'll be an absolute mess if someone gets hold of it.

MIDFIELD
With Hunt at No 10 Biarritz looked limited. His ability is obvious, and his vigour for the game looks infectious, but unleashing the centres and back three didn't seem to be on his agenda. The exact opposite of Skrela, whose outside men were causing all sorts of headaches for Leinster and played with as much width as the field would allow. With Hunt further out Biarritz looked much sharper and offered so much more, and often too much for the Ospreys, who will not want to see another replay of Ngwenya igniting the jet boots. Both teams have the ability to turn mistakes into points, but there are concerns about just how much Biarritz can test Toulouse with a backline movement, or off a launch play. However, just like the line-out, with a few weeks to work on things they may produce some surprises.

BACK THREE
Biarritz's back three are a bit like drag racers, incredibly quick, look brilliant when firing but lack reliability. It was only some poor kicking from the Munster out-half that left some potentially crucial errors unpunished last time they played.
I can't expect the same forgiveness will be extended to them on Saturday. To say Toulouse's back three were impressive in wet conditions, defusing well judged Leinster bombs, would be an understatement. They were virtually unflappable all game and would have left Leinster supporters feeing they were beaten by a better side.
The back trio for both sides can create the kind of excitement the tournament is renowned for and chances are if one of them gets going it'll ignite the others.

ROCKY'S BIG MATCH VERDICT
On form it really is Toulouse's tournament to win. Biarritz has the ability to take on Toulouse, but whether they have the heart to do it for the entire game is the question. They have power in their pack but can it outlast Toulouse?
They have a good half-back pair, but are they the equal of the opposition's? No doubt Yachvili will punish any opportunities presented to him in Paris, but will he get as many as he did against a retreating Munster pack who ultimately coughed up to many penalties and didn't offer enough.

If Biarritz can answer all these questions, like they did against the Ospreys and Munster, then this will be one of the great Heineken Cup stories. My guess is they won't.